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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 46

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 28 yards to NYJ 18, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.93 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model