Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 75

New York Jets 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

(1:31) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to TB 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-K.Johnson to TB 23 for -1 yards (37-Q.Stiggers).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.08 EP
74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model