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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 37

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on NYJ-9-W.McDonald, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.27 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model