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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 20

New York Jets 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.70 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP