4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +1.83 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model