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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 20 at the 35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.14 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model