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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 60

Chicago Bears 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift pushed ob at CHI 47 for 7 yards (11-J.Chinn).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.13 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model