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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 64

Chicago Bears 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to LV 18, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-T.Tucker to LV 25 for 7 yards (36-J.Owens; 92-D.Hardy).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.79 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 22, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP