4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 11

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Chicago Bears 19

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.48 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model