4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 28

Chicago Bears 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model