Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 61

Detroit Lions 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

(9:19) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to CLE 8, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.78 EP
62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model