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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 40

Detroit Lions 17 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:12) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.16 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model