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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 51

Cleveland Browns 7 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to DET 5, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond to DET 10 for 5 yards (30-D.Bush).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.12 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.47 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model