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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 15

Cleveland Browns 7 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 25-A.Szmyt 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.42 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model