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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 57

Detroit Lions 20 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to CLE 16, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP