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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 2 at the 24
Detroit Lions 20 – Cleveland Browns 10
What Actually Happened
(14:55) 0-J.Gibbs right end pushed ob at CLE 23 for 1 yard (30-D.Bush).
The Three Options
GO
+2.45 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.51 EP
- 40% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.70 EP
KICK
+1.45 EP
- 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 11% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT
+0.11 EP
- Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
