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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 53

Detroit Lions 27 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CLE 6, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: DET-25-J.Saylors has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.78 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model