Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 10 – Detroit Lions 34

(2:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to DET 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond to DET 21 for 5 yards (17-J.Baker; 28-T.Avery).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.51 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -2.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model