Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 61

Dallas Cowboys 16 – Green Bay Packers 13

(12:43) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to GB 19, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-R.Doubs ran ob at GB 24 for 5 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.12 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model