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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 23 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(8:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 3-G.Pickens to GB 45 for 12 yards (24-C.Valentine).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.11 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model