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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to GB 15, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 0-M.Golden.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.36 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model