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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to DAL 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.70 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 54, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model