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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Indianapolis Colts
4th & 1 at the 2
Indianapolis Colts 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3
What Actually Happened
(12:23) 84-T.Warren up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.40 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.33 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 2, worth +0.59 EP
KICK
+1.55 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT
+0.00 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
