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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to LA 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model