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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 42-E.Evans punts 32 yards to IND 18, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.18 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model