4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to IND 4, Center-47-A.Ward. 6-A.Gould to IND 19 for 15 yards (48-O.Speights; 47-A.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.71 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model