Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Los Angeles Rams 13

(7:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to LA 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.16 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model