Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 79

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Los Angeles Rams 13

(4:49) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to LA 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-X.Smith to LA 27 for no gain (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.36 EP
64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model