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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 42-E.Evans punts 55 yards to IND 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.01 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP