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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 3-S.Shrader 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.41 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 20, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model