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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(3:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.23 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 9, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model