Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Los Angeles Rams 20

(1:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to LA 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.25 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -2.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model