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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 23

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 16-J.Karty 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.25 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model