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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 9-M.Stafford right guard to LA 46 for 1 yard (97-L.Latu; 44-Z.Franklin). Indianapolis challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford right guard to LA 45 for no gain (97-L.Latu; 44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.70 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model