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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 8

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(:02) 39-C.Little 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.06 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model