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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to SF 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 9-S.Moore to SF 27 for 16 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.31 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model