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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 43

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.60 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model