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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 7-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-P.Washington for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model