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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 26 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to SF 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.85 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP