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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 29

Jacksonville Jaguars 26 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.88 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model