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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Jacksonville Jaguars
4th & 1 at the 40
Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3
What Actually Happened
(3:49) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to SF 37 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner).
The Three Options
GO
+1.55 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.20 EP
- 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.36 EP
KICK
-0.58 EP
- 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
- 43% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT
-0.50 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
