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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to NYG 11, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.10 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 62, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model