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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. PENALTY on LAC-74-A.Deculus, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.15 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model