4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 13

New York Giants 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 99-J.McAtamney 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.28 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model