Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to NYG 7, Center-41-R.Lovato. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 22 for 15 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). PENALTY on NYG-31-N.Jones, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at NYG 7. Penalty on NYG-54-S.Bozeman, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.05 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model