Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 99

New York Giants 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

(5:24) 12-J.Gillan punts 69 yards to LAC 30, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 41 for 11 yards (24-D.Belton; 31-N.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -4.13 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.41 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 99, worth -6.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model