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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 53

New York Giants 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 18

What Actually Happened

(:31) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to LAC 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 16 for 3 yards (85-C.Manhertz).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.45 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model