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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 45

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to NYG 1, Center-41-R.Lovato, downed by LAC-24-B.St-Juste.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.04 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP