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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 3-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to MIN 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 4-M.Price to MIN 26 for 13 yards (33-J.Sawyer; 15-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.90 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model