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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 12

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is BLOCKED (2-I.Rodgers), Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman, RECOVERED by MIN-0-I.Pace at MIN 9.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.75 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model